Zmiany czy anomalie klimatu w Europie przed wybuchem czarnej śmierci (1346–1353)? Wielki głód i epizootia a kondycja gospodarki rolnej w Europie w I. połowie XIV wieku

Abstract

The topic of this article is climate impact on agricultural economy in Europe in the first half of the 14th century (before the Black Death). The author, basing on the recent research (paleoclimatology, glaciology, hydroclimatology) demonstrated that during that period we had to do with symptoms of climate anomalies but not climate change. Uniqueness of that period was associated with cumulating a number of negative phenomena such as crop failure in 1315–1317 (The Great Famine) and 1338–1339 as well as epizootic (1319–1321). Shortage of food rations influenced the health condition of the generation born in that period. After the shock which afflicted agricultural economy in years 1315–1322, we can see a slow but clear tendency for economic growth in the second quarter of 14th century. Stability of climate was an important asset, which had impact on improvement in the sector of plant crops, mainly in the cereal sector (wheat, rye, barley). The growth of effectiveness in the cereal sector was caused largely by transformations in technology (better tools, plough and horse harness, better agricultural implements) so that work output had increased. In various parts of Europe, for example in south-east England (Essex, Sussex, Norfolk), in Italy or in Flanders, Low Countries many towns contributed to development of surrounding farms or manors through stimulation of intensive development of plant supplies such as crops, hop, flax, hemp, as well as milk, animal skins and wool. In England, Flanders and Low Countries we can observe that village sector participation increased in many nonagrarian undertakings as transport, brick making, pottery, weaving and exploitation of natural resources such as peat. In Europe until the Black Death outbreak we can observe continual transformation processes in the agricultural sector, which started in 12th–13th centuries. We can notice that in that period activity in seaway increased, not only in the Mediterranean basin (mainly between Italy, Byzantium, Egypt and Near East) but also on the water around the Iberian Peninsula and in the direction of the North-West Europe. Among negative tendencies which did not stop in European economy in the first half of 14th century we can enumerate a decline in the population, disturbances in commerce between Europe and Asia, caused by destabilization of Mongol rule in China in the thirties and forties of 14th century, as well as outbreak of Anglo-French War (Hundred Years’ War). In spite of negative phenomena which happened before the outbreak of the Black Death we can state that contemporaneous agricultural economy in Europe was not characterized by crisis but stagnation. However, clear indications of climate change connected with Little Ice Age did not occur until the second half of 14th century.